BY ANDY BAGGOT
UWBadgers.com Insider
MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin football coach Paul Chryst preaches caution when it comes to investing heavily in statistics.
"You have to be careful making so much out of them," he said Monday. "That's part of the game and if it happens you can't lose your mind."
That said, a recent data-related development has caught Chryst's eye.
For the first time this season, the sixth-ranked Badgers not only won the turnover battle in consecutive games — a combined plus-five — they did so without a fumble or an interception of their own.
"That's a huge stat," Chryst said.
It becomes magnified when you see UW scored a combined 25 points off those five takeaways and were able to run 41 more offensive plays than its opponents during Big Ten Conference wins over Northwestern (21-7) and Illinois (48-3).
The Badgers (8-2 overall, 5-2 in the Big Ten) have exceeded the expectations of many this season largely because their metrics for success are so pronounced.
They lead the nation in time of possession and are the second-least penalized club among the 128 Football Bowl Subdivision schools.
They rank third in scoring defense, fifth in rushing defense and eighth in total defense.
They stand third in the FBS in limiting third-down conversions, third in fewest touchdowns yielded and are seventh in fewest red-zone trips allowed.
When the season began in September, Chryst said he knew UW would play a lot of close games because its offense was young and still evolving. To wit, the Badgers have had six outings decided by one score and taken part in two overtime games.
A week ago, Chryst used the word "small" to describe his club's margin for error, in part because Wisconsin ranked 98th in scoring offense and 101st in total offense. That's still probably the case heading into a Big Ten encounter with Purdue (3-7, 1-6) on Saturday at West Lafayette, Indiana.
But if the metrics keep holding up and these recent turnover trends continue, the Badgers figure to become more dangerous in their chase for a league title and a possible berth in the College Football Playoff.
"Those are the little things that can push the scale in your favor or not," Chryst said of turnovers. "You put them all together and that tilts it."
Wisconsin has won six straight at Ross-Ade Stadium going back to 1997 and 10 straight in the series going back to 2003.
If those streaks stay intact, the Badgers will move a step closer to clinching the West Division title and securing a berth in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 3 in Indianapolis.
UW is plus-4 in the turnover equation overall, which is a season high. Its previous best was plus-2 and its low was minus-2.
The recent surge in takeaways has been timely.
A fourth-quarter fumble recovery by junior safety D'Cota Dixon led to a TD and two-point conversion on the road against Northwestern on Nov. 5. That bumped a 13-7 lead to a two-score advantage.
"Turnovers change the game no matter what," senior cornerback Sojourn Shelton said, "especially if you can get your offense a chance to have the ball more."
Four first-half interceptions — two by senior safety Leo Musso and one each by Dixon and sophomore inside linebacker Ryan Connelly — fueled the rout of Illinois at Camp Randall Stadium on Nov. 12.
Three of the picks gave UW the ball inside the Illini's 43, including two in the red zone. Two touchdowns and a field goal were the result.
"It's huge," senior tailback Dare Ogunbowale said. "I think the defense has given the ball to the offense in very good scoring situations. That's a big thing for us.
"They're doing that for us and we're trying our best on offense to capitalize on those."
The Badgers are unbeaten this season (4-0) and during the Chryst Era (10-0) when having fewer turnovers in a game.
UW players and coaches will be looking to bolster their turnover margin against the Boilermakers, who rank 126th in FBS in turnover margin (minus-16) and 127th in interceptions allowed (20).
Dixon and Musso lead the Badgers in interceptions with four and three, respectively. Meanwhile, Shelton and junior cornerback Derrick Tindal are among the national leaders with 13 passes defended apiece.
"Teams that turn the ball over or get turnovers have a lot to do with the win and loss outcomes," Shelton said.
"Our whole thing in our room is just being stingy. If you give us a chance, we're going to run with it."
